Estimating sell pressure converts abstract tokenomics into concrete numbers; the dollar amount of selling you should expect at each point post-TGE. Forgd uses a 3-step methodology.

Step 1: Build a dollarized emissions schedule. Take your token emission schedule (which shows token quantities per group per month) and multiply by your projected token price to convert everything into USD. Repeat for every group, every month.

Step 2: Classify each group's liquidation appetite. Not every dollar of emissions becomes a dollar of sell pressure. Assign each group a sell-through rate based on their expected behavior:

Step 3: Calculate dollarized sell pressure. Multiply each group's dollarized emissions by their sell-through rate.

Example at TGE:

Estimated sell pressure at TGE is the single most important number in your supply-side analysis. It represents a concentrated, known supply shock that your demand-side must be prepared to absorb. Post-TGE, sell pressure typically drops significantly once the initial aggressive-seller groups have liquidated.

The planning question should be: does your projected demand at TGE (speculative interest + institutional commitments + mechanism participation) exceed your estimated sell pressure? If not, your design needs adjustment before launch.

Use Forgd's free Token Designer software to run your own sell pressure analysis with customizable liquidation appetite assumptions.