There is no single formula — but there is a disciplined approach.

Start with comparable tokens. Analyze projects with similar sector exposure, traction metrics, revenue profile, user growth, and stage of maturity. Benchmark both their FDV at launch and how the market absorbed their circulating supply relative to depth of liquidity.

Next, adjust for current market conditions. Sector rotation, macro sentiment, and exchange appetite materially influence how much valuation the market can sustain at TGE.

Finally, model day-one supply versus realistic demand. Simulate different circulating supply scenarios against expected depth of liquidity and estimated buyer capacity. The objective is to ensure that early float can be absorbed without overwhelming order books.

An FDV is sustainable when demand concentration and liquidity provisioning can support it — not when it simply "looks good" relative to prior raises.

If you want to pressure-test your launch valuation against depth of liquidity and modeled day-one demand, book a consultation with Forgd.