Start with the baseline: 80-90% of airdropped tokens will be sold within 30 days, with the majority in the first 48-72 hours. Multiply your total airdrop allocation by 0.85 to estimate the volume of tokens that will hit the market.

Then compare that against your planned liquidity depth at launch — if the expected sell volume exceeds what your order book can absorb without significant slippage, you have a problem.

Mitigation levers include: staggering the claim window (not everyone claims at once), vesting a portion of the allocation, ensuring sufficient market maker depth on the bid side during the claim period, and coordinating timing so the airdrop does not coincide with other supply unlocks. If you're working with Forgd on your market making engagements, your market maker's depth targets should be calibrated to absorb the expected sell pressure.