Success depends on what the airdrop was designed to achieve. If the goal was decentralized distribution, measure the Gini coefficient of token holdings 30, 60, and 90 days post-airdrop. If the goal was user acquisition, track wallet retention (what percentage of claimants are still active protocol users after 90 days?). If the goal was governance participation, measure proposal voting rates among airdrop recipients versus other holders.

What you should not do is judge the airdrop by token price alone. A well-designed airdrop can cause short-term price depression from sell pressure while still achieving its strategic objectives. The Forgd Airdrop Framework recommends tracking holder retention, governance engagement, and distribution breadth as the primary success metrics — not price.